Lebanon, Israel and the struggle to make a ceasefire last
International Conflicts & Security
Last updated
The big picture
Lebanon’s conflict with Israel involves both a cross-border military confrontation and a struggle over who controls armed force inside Lebanon. Hezbollah is an armed movement as well as a political organization; Lebanon’s government is a separate actor. A November 2024 ceasefire sought to reduce fighting, but renewed war in March 2026 and later violations showed how fragile those arrangements were. Negotiations must address Israeli military positions, the role of Lebanon’s army and armed groups operating outside state control. The UN peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, is also approaching the end of its mandate, adding another deadline to an already difficult security transition.
Where things stand
An October diplomatic briefing describes continuing ceasefire violations and talks that have not produced a complete settlement. UNIFIL’s mandate is due to end on December 31, 2026, followed by a withdrawal period. Extending state authority and deciding what security arrangements follow the mission remain important unresolved issues.
Key facts
- Hezbollah and the Lebanese state should not be treated as the same institution.
- UNIFIL’s scheduled withdrawal is a process, not an overnight departure on the mandate’s final day.
- Border arrangements and disarmament are connected but distinct negotiating questions.
How we got here
A ceasefire arrangement is reached between Israel and Lebanon.
The Security Council adopts a final extension of UNIFIL’s mandate.
The October diplomatic outlook describes unfinished talks and ceasefire violations.
What happens next
- UNIFIL’s mandate ends on December 31, 2026; the resolution provides for withdrawal within the following year.
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